The defense lawyer’s plea recommendation: Disentangling the influences of perceived guilt and probability of conviction.
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
11-2022
Abstract
In light of theory and research suggesting that plea decisions are made in the “Shadow of Trial,” we examined the extent to which defense attorneys’ plea recommendations are driven by their beliefs in the defendant’s guilt or innocence and by estimates of the probability-of-conviction at trial. In two studies, participants read a case file containing a police report; a defendant’s written confession or denial; a motion and ruling to suppress evidence (an inculpatory confession in Study 1; an exculpatory eyewitness in Study 2) that was granted or denied; defense counsel’s interview notes in which the defendant proclaimed innocence or not; and the terms of a plea offer. Participants then made a plea recommendation and indicated their beliefs regarding the defendant’s guilt and likely trial verdict. Consistent across both studies, the recommendation to accept a plea offer was driven more by the perceived probability of conviction than by perceptions of factual guilt or innocence. Indicative of this pattern, inculpatory and exculpatory evidence affected plea recommendations only when ruled admissible. The defendant’s assertions of innocence to defense counsel also had little effect. Overall, these results suggest attorneys base their plea recommendations largely on pragmatic considerations. Policy implications are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)
Recommended Citation
Hellgren, Johanna and Kassin, Saul M., "The defense lawyer’s plea recommendation: Disentangling the influences of perceived guilt and probability of conviction." (2022). Articles. 19.
https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/qc_articles/19